Steve Heller's Year 2000 Start Page

Year 2000-compliant counter courtesy of the US government

Some important preparations to make

A foolish letter I received about Y2K

A discussion group on Y2K

What is the Y2K problem, anyway?

Why you should be concerned about the Y2K bug

The year 2000 or Y2K bug is the most serious threat to society and to the individuals that comprise it that the 20th century has seen, and possibly that any century has seen. I realize this may sound like hysteria or "scare mongering", but it is neither. There are quite a few good introductory Web pages about the origin of this problem, so I won't go into it in any great detail here. What I want to convey to you is how serious it is and how important it is that you should prepare for the potential loss of any or perhaps all infrastructure services. Let me start off by giving you a few quotes from some reputable sources such as the National Guard, Alliance Energy, and the Y2K Network. If you can read these and not be alarmed, you must not be paying attention.

First, here's the National Guard's WWW site on the impact of Y2K:

"On the serious side, some telecommunications systems may malfunction, possibly impacting emergency 911 operations. Worldwide, transportation systems -- air, land and sea travel -- may be affected. Reservations systems may malfunction, radar and other safety-related systems may be influenced and radio communications may be impacted. Traffic lights may not operate properly and toll gates may malfunction, causing massive traffic backups. Police and fire emergency response might be affected, as well as electronic life-support equipment in ambulances and hospitals.

"We may find ourselves unable to access buildings equipped with electronic security systems, or stranded in high-rise buildings when electronically programmed elevators malfunction. Large segments of our nation's electric power grid could fail, causing massive blackouts. Water distribution systems could fail. Distribution of vital petroleum and natural gas could be hampered if electronically controlled pipelines malfunction. Even our financial well-being might be affected if automated payroll systems malfunction, banks close and ATM cards fail to work."

Next, here is a statement by Alliant Energy, a major power producer:

"In a worst- case scenario, the turn of the century could lead to long- term power and communication outages, food shortages and public health and safety concerns."

Finally, here's what the National Coordinator of the Y2K Network has to say about the possibility of widespread outages of the natural gas industry's critical infrastructure:

"To summarize the bottom line. The Industry has been decentralized and NO ONE is minding the store. NO ONE is in control regarding Y2K. There is no central control regarding Networks. There is no regulation regarding Y2K. There is NOT EVEN any central required monitoring regarding Y2K. There is NO OUTSIDE evaluation of actual Y2K status. No one knows what is happening regarding Y2K. No one is even authorized to find out what is happening regarding Y2K."

Of course, there are many other WWW pages about the possible impact of Y2K on our society, but I think you get the idea.

Hi my name is Miki. I am a 16 year old female, and I attend a
public Highschool in Vancouver Washington. I have to write a news
article on Y2K, and I was wondering if you could maybe e-mail me back
a little bit of information. I was wondering what exactally y2k was?
Who will be affected by it? why is this accuring? Just things like
that. I have been searching the web but all I can seem to find is
information about how to prevent it. Do you thinkn you could help me
out and please give me a little bit of info? Thanks I'd highly
appreciate it:) 

  Thank you for your message. To answer your questions very briefly:
Y2K is shorthand for the Year 2000 problem. This problem will cause
computers around the world to malfunction on or about January 1, 2000,
because their programs use a shorthand method of indicating the year
by only the last two digits. For example, "65" means "1965", "83"
means "1983", "98" means "1998", and "99" means "1999". However, once
we have entered the year 2000, the two digit code will be "00". To a
program that has been written without consideration for this special
case (which includes most programs written in the last 30 years), it
will interpret "00" as "1900" rather than "2000", which will produce
peculiar and incorrect results.
  Who will be affected by it? Everyone who uses a computer that has
date-dependent software, or relies on any goods or services that are
produced with a computer that has date-dependent software. In other
words, everyone in the United States and the rest of the Western world.
  You will need to know much more about the Y2K problem if you are
going to avoid being severely affected by it. The best way I know of
to start learning about Y2K is to visit Gary North's WWW site:
www.garynorth.com. After reading his introduction, I'm sorry to have 
to tell you that you will be frightened. However, you still have time
to get your parents to pay attention to this problem so that you won't
be harmed by it. Please get your parents (and friends, if possible) to
read the introduction on Gary North's site, and get them started
preparing for a possible calamity. Your life may depend on it.

For example, you might want to compare my credentials with those of Sam Meddis, a writer for USA Today, whose recent article includes an email letter from me as an example of why you should pay no attention to us "extremists". I think the comparison of our demonstrated knowledge of computing is quite illuminating.

Of course, even someone who doesn't know much about a particular topic can come to a correct conclusion about it, so it's also important to analyze the validity of the arguments that someone makes, rather than merely assuming that because they aren't an expert in a particular field that their opinion must be incorrect. So let's take a look at Mr. Meddis's argument and see how it holds up logically.

"I won't spend much time examining why someone would think it's "good
news" for another human being, even a wisecracking columnist or a
Pollyanna, to stop breathing and, not to put too fine a point on it,
die.
  Lets just accept that for what it is -- an interesting insight
perhaps into why lemmings go jumping off cliffs without bungee cords.
I imagine that those at the front of the line tell the ones at the
rear that the only way to avoid a "major disaster" is to keep on
marching over the edge. What other scare tactic could work so
effectively? Some of the ones in the lead may even chirp about all the
experience they've had in the field."

Unfortunately for Mr. Meddis, this doesn't make any sense. The danger to the lemmings is not that they are preparing for disaster but that they are failing to notice that the danger even exists! Actually, the role of the lemming "leaders" is much more appropriately assigned to Mr. Meddis and his colleagues in the news media who are trying to keep the population from noticing the potential disaster.

"It is action-movie fiction to suggest that Y2K is "this" problem that
won't be fixed in time, as though it were some ticking doomsday bomb
that Bruce Willis has to defuse while beads of sweat roll down through
his two-day stubble. As though if a computer fails at a bank in
BigCity, USA, or a power company has to shut down for repairs in
SmallTown, USA, that all of the banks and the entire power grid in
EveryWhere, USA, will collapse through an apocalyptic domino effect.

Even Bruce might have his cinematic hands full with that one.

In the real world, however, what we have is not an all-or-nothing plot
-- although our computer systems have grown extremely complex and
interdependent, there is no "this" there. The problem, in fact, is
spread out among computer systems of all shapes and sizes, and
thousands of capable programmers have been hard at work to make them
Y2K compliant."

"It is action-movie fiction to suggest that Y2K are "these" problems that
won't be fixed in time, as though it were 100,000,000 ticking doomsday
bombs that Bruce Willis has to defuse while beads of sweat roll down
through his two-day stubble."

There is actually at least one "romantic doomsday feature" movie about Y2K in production. Personally, I don't think it will require any deliberate action to make this crisis worse, but of course I could be wrong!

First, visit Michael Hyatt's site on personal preparedness.

Then read my page on why I became an amateur radio operator (ham) and why you should too

Next, visit these other resources for more information on what is likely to happen.

Gary North's page on the Year 2000 problem

Ed Yourdon's book on the Year 2000 problem

Cory Hamasaki's Y2K weather reports

Finally, get busy and start preparing. You don't have any time to waste!